机器学习系统对通过风险分数预测患者不良事件的预测显示出了巨大的希望。但是，根据培训数据中存在的干预政策，这些风险分数隐含地编码有关患者可能会接受的未来干预措施的假设。没有这种重要的背景，这些系统的预测对于临床医生而言是不太可解释的。我们提出了一种干预政策和不利事件风险的联合模型，以此作为明确传达模型对未来干预措施的假设的一种手段。我们开发了一种关于Mimic-III的干预政策模型，这是一个现实世界中的ICU数据集，并讨论了一些用例突出该方法的实用性。我们展示了将典型的风险评分（例如死亡率的可能性）与未来干预概率分数相结合，从而导致更明显的临床预测。

有许多可用于选择优先考虑治疗的可用方法，包括基于治疗效果估计，风险评分和手工制作规则的遵循申请。我们将秩加权平均治疗效应（RATY）指标作为一种简单常见的指标系列，用于比较水平竞争范围的治疗优先级规则。对于如何获得优先级规则，率是不可知的，并且仅根据他们在识别受益于治疗中受益的单位的方式进行评估。我们定义了一系列速率估算器，并证明了一个中央限位定理，可以在各种随机和观测研究环境中实现渐近精确的推断。我们为使用自主置信区间的使用提供了理由，以及用于测试关于治疗效果中的异质性的假设的框架，与优先级规则相关。我们对速率的定义嵌套了许多现有度量，包括QINI系数，以及我们的分析直接产生了这些指标的推论方法。我们展示了我们从个性化医学和营销的示例中的方法。在医疗环境中，使用来自Sprint和Accor-BP随机对照试验的数据，我们发现没有明显的证据证明异质治疗效果。另一方面，在大量的营销审判中，我们在一些数字广告活动的治疗效果中发现了具有的强大证据，并证明了如何使用率如何比较优先考虑估计风险的目标规则与估计治疗效益优先考虑的目标规则。

非正式地，“虚假关联”是模型对分析师认为无关紧要的输入数据的某些方面的依赖性。在机器学习中，这些都有一个知道它 - 当你看到它的字符;例如，改变句子主题的性别改变了情绪预测因素的输出。要检查虚假相关性，我们可以通过对输入数据的无关部分进行扰动并查看模型预测变化来“压力测试”模型。在本文中，我们使用因果推断的工具研究压力测试。我们将反事实不变性介绍，作为一个正式化的要求，即改变输入不相关的部分不应改变模型预测。我们将反事实不变性与域外模型性能进行连接，并提供用于学习（大约）反事实不变预测器的实用方案（无需访问反事实示例）。事实证明，反事实不变性的手段和含义都基本上取决于数据的真实潜在的因果结构 - 特别是标签是否导致特征或功能导致标签。不同的因果结构需要不同的正则化方案，以诱导反事实不变性。同样，反事实不变性暗示不同的域移位保证，具体取决于底层的因果结构。该理论是通过文本分类的经验结果支持。

由于存在抗抗，因此仅由于例如损失跟踪而仅部分已知的抗抗，因此仅存在抗抗，因此存在于回归建模的具有挑战性。这些问题经常在医疗应用中出现，使生存分析成为医疗保健的生物统计学和机器学习的关键努力，Cox回归模型是最常用的模型。我们描述了一种基于COX回归的学习混合物来模拟各个生存分布的生存分析回归模型的新方法。我们提出了对该模型的预期最大化算法的近似，该算法对混合组进行了艰难的分配，以进行优化效率。在每个组分配中，我们使用深神经网络的每个组内的危险比以及每个混合物组分非参数的基线危害。我们对多个现实世界数据集进行实验，并查看种族和性别患者的死亡率。我们强调了校准在医疗保健环境中的重要性，并证明我们的方法在鉴别性能和校准方面表明了古典和现代生存分析基线，在少数人口统计数据上具有大的收益。

While the capabilities of autonomous systems have been steadily improving in recent years, these systems still struggle to rapidly explore previously unknown environments without the aid of GPS-assisted navigation. The DARPA Subterranean (SubT) Challenge aimed to fast track the development of autonomous exploration systems by evaluating their performance in real-world underground search-and-rescue scenarios. Subterranean environments present a plethora of challenges for robotic systems, such as limited communications, complex topology, visually-degraded sensing, and harsh terrain. The presented solution enables long-term autonomy with minimal human supervision by combining a powerful and independent single-agent autonomy stack, with higher level mission management operating over a flexible mesh network. The autonomy suite deployed on quadruped and wheeled robots was fully independent, freeing the human supervision to loosely supervise the mission and make high-impact strategic decisions. We also discuss lessons learned from fielding our system at the SubT Final Event, relating to vehicle versatility, system adaptability, and re-configurable communications.

We consider the contextual bandit problem on general action and context spaces, where the learner's rewards depend on their selected actions and an observable context. This generalizes the standard multi-armed bandit to the case where side information is available, e.g., patients' records or customers' history, which allows for personalized treatment. We focus on consistency -- vanishing regret compared to the optimal policy -- and show that for large classes of non-i.i.d. contexts, consistency can be achieved regardless of the time-invariant reward mechanism, a property known as universal consistency. Precisely, we first give necessary and sufficient conditions on the context-generating process for universal consistency to be possible. Second, we show that there always exists an algorithm that guarantees universal consistency whenever this is achievable, called an optimistically universal learning rule. Interestingly, for finite action spaces, learnable processes for universal learning are exactly the same as in the full-feedback setting of supervised learning, previously studied in the literature. In other words, learning can be performed with partial feedback without any generalization cost. The algorithms balance a trade-off between generalization (similar to structural risk minimization) and personalization (tailoring actions to specific contexts). Lastly, we consider the case of added continuity assumptions on rewards and show that these lead to universal consistency for significantly larger classes of data-generating processes.

By transferring knowledge from large, diverse, task-agnostic datasets, modern machine learning models can solve specific downstream tasks either zero-shot or with small task-specific datasets to a high level of performance. While this capability has been demonstrated in other fields such as computer vision, natural language processing or speech recognition, it remains to be shown in robotics, where the generalization capabilities of the models are particularly critical due to the difficulty of collecting real-world robotic data. We argue that one of the keys to the success of such general robotic models lies with open-ended task-agnostic training, combined with high-capacity architectures that can absorb all of the diverse, robotic data. In this paper, we present a model class, dubbed Robotics Transformer, that exhibits promising scalable model properties. We verify our conclusions in a study of different model classes and their ability to generalize as a function of the data size, model size, and data diversity based on a large-scale data collection on real robots performing real-world tasks. The project's website and videos can be found at robotics-transformer.github.io

The renewed interest from the scientific community in machine learning (ML) is opening many new areas of research. Here we focus on how novel trends in ML are providing opportunities to improve the field of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). In particular, we discuss synergies between ML and CFD that have already shown benefits, and we also assess areas that are under development and may produce important benefits in the coming years. We believe that it is also important to emphasize a balanced perspective of cautious optimism for these emerging approaches

The theory of magnitude provides a mathematical framework for quantifying and maximizing diversity. We apply this framework to formulate quality-diversity algorithms in generic dissimilarity spaces. In particular, we instantiate and demonstrate a very general version of Go-Explore with promising performance.

Physically based rendering of complex scenes can be prohibitively costly with a potentially unbounded and uneven distribution of complexity across the rendered image. The goal of an ideal level of detail (LoD) method is to make rendering costs independent of the 3D scene complexity, while preserving the appearance of the scene. However, current prefiltering LoD methods are limited in the appearances they can support due to their reliance of approximate models and other heuristics. We propose the first comprehensive multi-scale LoD framework for prefiltering 3D environments with complex geometry and materials (e.g., the Disney BRDF), while maintaining the appearance with respect to the ray-traced reference. Using a multi-scale hierarchy of the scene, we perform a data-driven prefiltering step to obtain an appearance phase function and directional coverage mask at each scale. At the heart of our approach is a novel neural representation that encodes this information into a compact latent form that is easy to decode inside a physically based renderer. Once a scene is baked out, our method requires no original geometry, materials, or textures at render time. We demonstrate that our approach compares favorably to state-of-the-art prefiltering methods and achieves considerable savings in memory for complex scenes.